Two major van lines said they moved far more people into Oregon than out of the state last year, putting Oregon on their 2017 list of top moving destinations.
Oregon ranked second in the nation — behind Vermont — on United Van Lines’ 2017 list of top moving destinations and eighth on a similar list produced by Atlas Van Lines.
United, based in St. Louis, calls itself the “nation’s largest household goods mover.” Competitor Atlas is based in Evansville, Ind.
United said 65 percent of its Oregon customers last year were moving into the state, instead of away. Atlas said 58 percent of its Oregon customers were moving into the state.
Of United’s moves to Oregon, about half were for a new job or company transfer, and nearly a fourth were to be closer to family, United said.
The companies produce annual reports showing which states their customers are moving to and from. The reports support trends identified by the U.S. Census Bureau and other population tabulators.
Oregon’s population surged to 4.1 million last year, outpacing growth in most of the country, recent census data show.
Oregon added nearly 57,000 residents between July 2016 and July 2017, and more than 80 percent of that growth was from people moving in, rather than from births outpacing deaths, the census report found.
The census estimates don’t include city and county information, but recent estimates by Portland State University’s Population Research Center show Lane County’s population inching up with the state’s population. The county added 4,660 residents between July 2016 and 2017, for total population of 370,600, the population research center found.
“Net migration has been driving population growth in Lane County for a long time,” said Brian Rooney, a Eugene-based labor economist with the state Employment Department.
In general, newcomers were drawn to the West and South, while residents were fleeing the Midwest and Northeast, the United report found.
“This year’s data reflects longer-term trends of movement to the western and southern states, especially to those where housing costs are relatively lower, climates are more temperate, and job growth has been at or above the national average, among other factors,” Michael Stoll, an economist and public policy professor at the University of California, Los Angeles, said in the United press release. “We’re also seeing continued migration to the Pacific Northwest and Mountain West as young professionals and retirees leave California.”
Source: Sherri Buri McDonald, The Register Guard, 1-7-18
It is common knowledge that a great number of homes sell during the spring-buying season. For that reason, many homeowners hold off on putting their homes on the market until then. The question is whether or not that will be a good strategy this year.
The other listings that do come out in the spring will represent increased competition to any seller. Do a greater number of homes actually come to the market in the spring as compared to the rest of the year? The National Association of Realtors (NAR) recently revealed the months in which most people listed their homes for sale in 2017. Here is a graphic showing the results:
The three months in the second quarter of the year (represented in red) are consistently the most popular months for sellers to list their homes on the market. Last year, the number of homes available for sale in January was 1,680,000.
That number spiked to 1,970,000 by May!
What does this mean to you?
With the national job situation improving, and mortgage interest rates projected to rise later in the year, buyers are not waiting until the spring; they are out looking for homes right now. If you are looking to sell this year, waiting until the spring to list your home means you will have the greatest competition amongst buyers.
It may make sense to beat the rush of housing inventory that will enter the market in the spring and list your home today.
Source: Keeping Current Matters, 1-15-18
Accelerating home prices.
Expanding income and jobs.
In 2018, the hottest housing markets will boast a combination of these factors, according to Zillow, which recently released its predictions for the year. The markets in Zillow’s top 10:
- San Jose, Calif.
- Raleigh, N.C.
- Seattle, Wash.
- Charlotte, N.C.
- San Francisco, Calif.
- Austin, Texas
- Denver, Colo.
- Nashville, Tenn.
- Portland, Ore.
- Dallas, Texas
Analysts based the list off the Zillow Home Value and Rent Forecast, which is the change projected in the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) and the Zillow Rent Index (ZRI) for the coming year, as well as employment, income and population statistics from Glassdoor.
“This list shows that just because a market is smaller or more affordable doesn’t mean it isn’t dynamic,” says Aaron Terrazas, senior economist at Zillow. “Growing cities in the Sun Belt, places like Raleigh, Charlotte and Nashville, offer plenty of opportunities in healthcare and finance, while providing a less-expensive, but still-convenient alternative to the larger and pricier markets in the Northeast. The tech industry continues to roar, attracting thousands of new residents per year to tech-dominant markets like Seattle, Denver and the Bay Area. The higher cost of living in these areas is offset to a large degree by well-paying tech jobs.”
Across the top 10, analysts anticipate home values will increase between 3 and 8.9 percent in the next year—8.9 percent in San Jose, and 3 percent in Denver. The complete forecast:
For more information, please visit www.zillow.com.
Source: Suzanne De Vita, RISMedia
The housing crisis is finally in the rear-view mirror as the real estate market moves down the road to a complete recovery. Home values are up, home sales are up, and distressed sales (foreclosures and short sales) have fallen to their lowest points in years. It seems that the market will continue to strengthen in 2018.
However, there is one thing that may cause the industry to tap the brakes: a lack of housing inventory. While buyer demand looks like it will remain strong throughout the winter, supply is not keeping up.
Here are the thoughts of a few industry experts on the subject:
“Total housing inventory at the end of November dropped 7.2 percent to 1.67 million existing homes available for sale, and is now 9.7 percent lower than a year ago (1.85 million) and has fallen year-over-year for 30 consecutive months. Unsold inventory is at a 3.4-month supply at the current sales pace, which is down from 4.0 months a year ago.”
“The increases in single-family permits and starts show that builders are planning and starting new construction projects, that’s a good thing because it will help to relievethe shortage of homes on the market.”
“Inventory is tighter than it appears. It’s much lower for entry-level buyers.”
If you are thinking of selling, now may be the time. Demand for your house will be strong at a time when there is very little competition. That could lead to a quick sale for a really good price.
Source: Keeping Current Matters, 1-9-18
As home values continue to increase at levels greater than historic norms, some are concerned that we are heading for another crash like the one we experienced ten years ago. We recently explained that the lenient lending standards of the previous decade (which created false demand) no longer exist. But what about prices?
Are prices appreciating at the same rate that they were prior to the crash of 2006-2008? Let’s look at the numbers as reported by Freddie Mac:
The levels of appreciation we have experienced over the last four years aren’t anywhere near the levels that were reached in the four years prior to last decade’s crash.
We must also realize that, to a degree, the current run-up in prices is the market trying to catch up after a crash that dramatically dropped prices for five years.
Prices are appreciating at levels greater than historic norms. However, we are not at the levels that led to the housing bubble and bust.
Source: Keeping Current Matters, 12-21-17
The single-family rental market has grown by 5 million from 2006 to 2017 – wiping out 270,000 potential home sales annually.
An analysis by Zillow considered the impact on the nationwide home inventory and calculated that booming rental market meant a 5% decline in for-sale inventory each year.
The figures reveal that 120,000 of the total lost sales would have been the starter homes desperately sought by first time buyers. In the past 5 years, almost 40% of the single-family homes bought and converted to rentals have been starter homes.
A major reason for the rental surge was the financial crisis as mortgage borrowers who lost their homes were forced into rentals. The share of single-family homes that were rented out jumped from 13% in 2007 to 19.2% in 2016.
There’s still strong demand for single-family homes to rent with 45% of renters wanting one but only 28% finding an available home.
“The combination of foreclosures and growing rental demand following the housing crash was an attractive opportunity for investors – large and small – who were able to buy foreclosed homes and use them to meet the rental demand. At the same time, many long-time owners have opted to hold onto their homes as rentals even after they decide to move somewhere else,” said Zillow senior economist Aaron Terrazas.
Source: Steve Randall, Mortgage Professional America, 12-14-17
In many markets across the country, the number of buyers searching for their dream homes greatly outnumbers the number of homes for sale. This has led to a competitive marketplace where buyers often need to stand out. One way to show you are serious about buying your dream home is to get pre-qualified or pre-approved for a mortgage before starting your search.
Even if you are in a market that is not as competitive, knowing your budget will give you the confidence of knowing if your dream home is within your reach.
Freddie Mac lays out the advantages of pre-approval in the ‘My Home’ section of their website:
“It’s highly recommended that you work with your lender to get pre-approved before you begin house hunting. Pre-approval will tell you how much home you can afford and can help you move faster, and with greater confidence, in competitive markets.”
One of the many advantages of working with a local real estate professional is that many have relationships with lenders who will be able to help you with this process. Once you have selected a lender, you will need to fill out their loan application and provide them with important information regarding “your credit, debt, work history, down payment and residential history.”
Freddie Mac describes the ‘4 Cs’ that help determine the amount you will be qualified to borrow:
- Capacity: Your current and future ability to make your payments
- Capital or cash reserves: The money, savings, and investments you have that can be sold quickly for cash
- Collateral: The home, or type of home, that you would like to purchase
- Credit: Your history of paying bills and other debts on time
Getting pre-approved is one of many steps that will show home sellers that you are serious about buying, and it often helps speed up the process once your offer has been accepted.
Many potential home buyers overestimate the down payment and credit scores needed to qualify for a mortgage today. If you are ready and willing to buy, you may be pleasantly surprised at your ability to do so as well.
Source: Keeping Current Matters, 12-11-17
Rising rents are making renting less and less affordable, while mortgage payments are accounting for a smaller share of income than they have historically, according to new data.
Currently, the median US rental eats up 29.1% of the median monthly income, according to a new study by Zillow. That’s a sharp increase from the years before the housing collapse, when renters spend an average of 25.8% of their income on housing. According to Zillow, renters are spending an average of $1,957 more on rent in 2017 than they did before the crash.
Homeowners, on the other hand, are spending less of their income on house payments than they did before the crash – an average of about $3,300 per year less. Mortgage payments in the third quarter of 2017 took up about 15.4% of the median income, down from 21% previously.
Rent affordability is even worse in expensive markets. In San Jose, renters are spending an average of close to 39% of their rents on income – about $13,525 more this year that the historic level of 26%, Zillow found. Renters in San Francisco are spending an average of $11,236 more this year than they would have if rents had remained proportional to income.
“In most markets, current renters are at a disadvantage compared to years past because paying the rent takes up a much larger share of their income than it did before,” said Dr. Svenja Gudell, Zillow’s chief economist. “For many people, that can mean less cash to put toward paying off student debt, building an emergency fund, or saving for retirement. For those hoping to buy a home, it could be a significant part of their down payment. For parents, it could mean additional childcare or a family vacation. This is another example of how much worse rent affordability has gotten.”
Source: Ryan Smith, Mortgage Professional America, 11-30-17