In a 15-month trend, annual appreciation decelerated to 3.1 percent in June, falling from 3.3 percent in May, according to the national S&P CoreLogic/Case-Shiller Indices, released today.
The declining gains indicate a return to sustainability, explains Philip Murphy, managing director and global head of Index Governance at S&P Dow Jones Indices.
“Home price gains continue to trend down, but may be leveling off to a sustainable level,” Murphy says. “The U.S. National Home Price NSA Index year-over-year price change in June 2019 of 3.1 percent is exactly half of what it was in June 2018.”
A determining factor, however, is the potential recession, which could disrupt the longer-term trend—but, experts have mixed views.
“Home price gains in most cities remain positive in low single digits,” Murphy says. “Therefore, it is likely that current rates of change will generally be sustained barring an economic downturn.”
According to Ralph McLaughlin, CoreLogic deputy chief economist and executive of Research and Insights, there is the potential for prices to reignite, especially if low mortgage rates remain the trend. The average 30-year fixed rate slid to 3.55 percent, down from 4.51 percent this time in 2018, Freddie Mac recently reported.
“While falling mortgage rates have thus far only led to an increase in refinancing, rather than purchase activity, there will undoubtedly be a large boon to the marginal homebuyer,” McLaughlin says. “Thus, we should expect the lengthy slowdown in home price growth to flatten or even tick upwards by the end of the year, assuming the U.S. economy avoids any present-day threats of a recession.”
According to Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of REALTORS®, there is a high likelihood for prices to strengthen. In July, the existing-home median price was $280,800, an increase of 4.3 percent year-over-year.
“Though showing mild deceleration in price growth, it is worth noting that this index is a bit of a lagging indicator, with the latest data reflecting what happened in April, May and June,” says Yun. “The figure is likely to show reacceleration in home price gains in the upcoming months, as the market has been shifting towards higher demand due to lower mortgage rates and reduced supply as home builders constructed fewer homes this year compared to the last year.”
In the country’s 20 major markets, home prices rose 2.1 percent year-over-year, according to the S&P National Index. The biggest gains in June were in Phoenix, where home prices surged 5.8 percent, and in Las Vegas, at 5.5 percent.
The complete data for the 20 markets measured by S&P:
Las Vegas, Nev.
Los Angeles, Calif.
New York, N.Y.
San Diego, Calif.
San Francisco, Calif.
Source: Suzanne De Vita, RIS Media
Many buyers are wondering where to find houses for sale in today’s market. It’s a true dilemma. We see an increase in buyer demand, but the supply available for purchase isn’t keeping up.
The number of new housing permits issued prior to the great recession increased for 15 years until 2005 (from 1.12 million in 1990 to a pre-recession peak of 2.16 million in 2005). According to Apartment List,
“From 1990 to 2005, the number of single-family permits issued more than doubled, while the number of multi-family permits grew by 49 percent.”
When the housing market crashed, the number of new homes permitted decreased to its lowest level in 2009 (see below):Since then, supply and demand have been out of balance when it comes to new construction. According to the same report,
“Construction of single-family homes has recovered much more slowly — the number of single-family housing units permitted in 2018 was barely half the number permitted in 2005.”
Why is new construction so important?
As the U.S. population increases, there is also an increase in the need for new homes. Today, new construction is not keeping up with the increase in the nation’s population. The report continues:
“The total number of residential housing units permitted in 2018 was roughly the same as the number permitted in 1994, when the country’s population was 20 percent less than it is today.”
Essentially, the dip in home building coupled with the steadily increasing U.S. population means there is now a selling opportunity for homeowners willing to list their current houses.
If you’re considering selling your house to move up, now is a great time to get a positive return on your investment in a market with high demand. Contact a local real estate professional who can walk you through the specific options available for you and your family.
Source: Keeping Current Matters, 8-20-19
The current housing landscape presents greater home values, low interest rates, and high buyer demand. All of these factors point to the strong market forecasted to continue throughout the rest of the year.
There is, however, one thing that may cause the industry to tap the brakes: an overall lack of housing inventory. Buyer demand naturally increases during the summer months, but the current supply is not keeping up.
Here is a look at what a few industry experts have to say:
“Imbalance persists for mid-to-lower priced homes with solid demand and insufficient supply, which is consequently pushing up home prices.”
“Market conditions are ripe for increasing home sales with one glaring exception. The supply of homes for sale remains tight, keeping existing home sales below potential.”
“We’re not seeing as many new listings come up on the market…It was only 18 months ago that the number of homes for sale hit its lowest level in recorded history and sparked the fiercest competition among buyers we’ve ever seen.”
If you’re thinking of selling, now may be the time. Demand for your house will be strong during a period when there is very little competition, ideally leading to a quick sale and a great return on your investment.
Source: Keeping Current Matters, 7-29-19
Whether you are a first-time buyer or looking to move up to the home of your dreams, now is a great time to purchase a home. Here are three major reasons to buy today.
Many people focus solely on price when talking about home affordability. Since home prices have appreciated throughout the past year, they assume homes are less affordable. However, affordability is determined by three components:
- Mortgage Interest Rate
Prices are up, but so are wages – and interest rates have recently dropped dramatically (see #2 below). As a result, the National Association of Realtors’ (NAR) latest Affordability Index report revealed that homes are MORE affordable throughout the country today than they were a year ago.
“All four regions saw an increase in affordability from a year ago. The South had the biggest gain in affordability of 6.9%, followed by the West with a gain of 6.0%. The Midwest had an increase of 5.8%, followed by the Northeast with the smallest gain of 1.8%.”
2. Mortgage Interest Rates
Mortgage rates have dropped almost a full point after heading toward 5% last fall and early winter. Currently, they are below 4%.Additionally, Fannie Mae recently predicted the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage will be 3.7% in the second half of 2019. That compares to a 4.4% average rate in the first quarter and 4% in the second quarter.
With mortgage rates remaining near historic lows, Fannie Mae and others have increased their forecasts for housing appreciation for the rest of the year. If home price gains are about to re-accelerate, buying now rather than later makes financial sense.
3. Increase Family Wealth
Homeownership has always been recognized as a sensational way to build long-term family wealth. A new report by ATTOM Data Solutions reveals:
“U.S. homeowners who sold in the second quarter of 2019 realized an average home price gain since purchase of $67,500, up from an average gain of $57,706 in Q1 2019 and up from an average gain of $60,100 in Q2 2018. The average home seller gain of $67,500 in Q2 2019 represented an average 33.9 percent return as a percentage of original purchase price.”
The longer you delay purchasing a home, the longer you are waiting to put the power of home equity to work for you.
With affordability increasing, mortgage rates decreasing, and home values about to re-accelerate, it may be time to talk with a local real estate professional to determine if buying now makes sense for your family.
Source: Keeping Current Matters, 7-25-19
Homes priced at the top 25% of the price range for a particular area of the country are considered “premium homes.” In today’s real estate market, there are deals to be had at the higher end! This is great news for homeowners wanting to upgrade from their current house.
Much of the demand for housing over the past couple of years has come from first-time buyers looking for their starter home. Many of the more expensive homes listed for sale have not seen as much interest.
According to ILHM’s Luxury Report, this mismatch in demand and inventory of luxury and premium homes has created a Buyer’s Market. For the purpose of the report, a luxury home was defined as one that costs $1 million or more.
“A Buyer’s Market indicates that buyers have greater control over the price point. This market type is demonstrated by a substantial number of homes on the market and few sales, suggesting demand for residential properties is slow for that market and/or price point.”
The authors of the report were quick to point out that current conditions at the higher end of the market are no cause for concern.
“While luxury homes may take longer to sell than in previous years, the slower pace, increased inventory levels and larger differences between list and sold prices, represent a normalization of the market, not a downturn.”
Luxury can mean different things to different people. To one person, luxury is a secluded home with plenty of property and privacy. To another, it could be a penthouse at the center of a bustling city. Knowing what characteristics mean luxury to you will help your agent find you the home of your dreams.
If you are debating upgrading your current house to a premium or luxury home, now is the time!
Source: Keeping Current Matters, 7-8-19
- Real estate has outranked stocks/mutual funds, gold, savings accounts/CDs, and bonds as the best long-term investment among Americans for the last 6 years.
- Stock owners are more positive about real estate than stocks as an investment.
- Of the 4 listed, real estate is the only investment you can also live in!
Source: Keeping Current Matters, 6-28-19
Every year, Gallup surveys Americans to determine their choice for the best long-term investment. Respondents are given a choice between real estate, stocks, gold, and savings accounts.
For the sixth year in a row, real estate has come out on top as the best long-term investment! That has not always been the case. Gallup explains:
“Between 2008 and 2010, covering most of the Great Recession period that saw plummeting home and stock values, Americans were as likely to name savings accounts or CDs as the best long-term investment as they were to name stocks or real estate.”
This year’s results showed that 35% of Americans chose real estate, followed by stocks at 27%. The full results are shown in the chart below.
Now that the real estate market has recovered, so has the belief of the American people in the stability of housing as a long-term investment.
Source: Keeping Current Matters, 5-23-19
- Existing Home Sales slowed to an annual pace of 5.21 million home sales in March.
- Low inventory levels are still impacting home sales! The current month’s supply of homes for sale is 3.9-months.
- Median home prices were up 3.8% over last March at $259,400. This marked the 85thconsecutive month with year-over-year price gains.
Source: Keeping Current Matters, 4-26-19
There has been a great amount written on millennials and their impact on the housing market. However, the headlines often contradict each other. Some claim this generation is becoming the largest share of first-time home buyers, while others claim millennials don’t want to own a home, blaming them for the dip in homeownership rate.
While it is true that millennials have achieved milestones like getting married, having kids, and buying homes later in life than their parents and grandparents did, they are not solely to blame for today’s housing market trends.
Freddie Mac’s Insight Report explored the impact of the Silent and Baby Boomer Generations on the housing market.
If millennials are unable to find a home to buy at a young age like their predecessors, then who is living in those homes?
The answer: Seniors born after 1931 are staying in their homes longer than previous generations, instead choosing to “age in place.”
Freddie Mac found that,
“this trend accounts for about 1.6 million houses held back from the market through 2018, representing about one year’s typical supply of new construction, or more than half of the current shortfall of 2.5 million housing units estimated in December’s Insight.
Older Americans prefer to age in place because they are satisfied with their communities, their homes, and their quality of life.”
According to the National Association of Realtors, inventory of homes for sale is currently at a 3.5-month supply, which means that nationally we are in a seller’s market. A ‘normal’ housing market requires 6-7 months inventory, a level we have not achieved since August 2012.
“The most important fundamental in today’s housing market is the lack of houses for sale. This shortage has been identified as an important barrier to young adults buying their first homes.”
If you are one of the many seniors who desires to retire in the same area you’ve always lived, you’re not alone. Will your current house fit your needs throughout retirement? If you have any questions about demand for your house, meet with a local real estate professional who can show you the opportunities available today!
Source: Keeping Current Matters, 4-24-19